Issued at 800 PM MST Sun Jul 19 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 200234 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Fausto Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 800 PM MST Sun Jul 19 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Fausto's convective organization has continued to improve during the past several hours. Deep convection has become better established near the center, with a well-defined upper-level outflow over the southern semicircle. Subjective Dvorak estimates from TAFB are T3.0/45 kt, while objective UW-CIMSS intensity estimates range from 30 to 40 kt. Given the improving satellite presentation and a blend of these estimates, the initial intensity is increased to 40 kt. The initial motion estimate is toward the northwest, or 310/10 kt. While there remains some uncertainty in the exact position of the low-level center, track guidance remains in good agreement through about 96 h, with the cross-track spread increasing somewhat thereafter. A subtropical ridge is forecast to build westward in the wake of Elida, steering Fausto on a west-northwestward track during the next couple of days. Thereafter, the system is expected to gradually slow and turn slightly more westward through Wednesday before resuming a west-northwestward motion while accelerating later in the forecast period. The NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous advisory, but has been nudged slightly to the right to better align with the multi-model consensus (HCCA) and the Google DeepMind ensemble mean. Environmental conditions are forecast to remain conducive for strengthening during the next few days, with warm sea surface temperatures, deep moisture, and minimal vertical wind shear expected to persist along Fausto's forecast track. Accordingly, Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane within 24 h, and a period of rapid intensification appears likely during the next couple of days. Fausto is forecast to reach its peak intensity by midweek. Thereafter, guidance suggest that decreasing upper-level divergence and a somewhat drier mid-level environment should induce a gradual weakening trend. The latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the middle of the guidance envelope through about 60 h, then lies near the upper end of the guidance envelope thereafter. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 20/0300Z 12.6N 114.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 20/1200Z 13.3N 116.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 21/0000Z 14.5N 117.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 36H 21/1200Z 15.6N 119.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 22/0000Z 16.3N 120.8W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 22/1200Z 16.7N 122.3W 95 KT 110 MPH 72H 23/0000Z 17.1N 124.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 24/0000Z 17.7N 128.8W 85 KT 100 MPH 120H 25/0000Z 18.5N 134.1W 75 KT 85 MPH $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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