Issued at 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 191440 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 800 AM PDT Sun Jul 19 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Elida has been able to hold on to some deep convection in the inner core for the last several hours. A 0743 UTC OSCAT scatterometer pass sampled some of the peak surface winds around 45 kt. However, the latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB remained at T3.5/55 kt. Given the current satellite presentation and the other data on hand, the intensity has been held at 50 kt. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 340/8 kt. Elida is expected to continue turning northward while gradually accelerating over the next day or two as it becomes increasingly steered by a deep-layer trough off the California coast. The track guidance maintains a fairly good consistency from the last several periods. As such only very minor adjustments have been made to the NHC forecast track. Although the system still has a good presentation on satellite images, the cyclone is moving over sea-surface temperatures below 25 degrees C. Ocean waters are expected to cool further as the system continues to move northward over the next couple days. In addition, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air should result in a steady weakening trend. Elida is forecast to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low by Monday night, with the remnant low dissipating by late Wednesday. The NHC intensity forecast is essentially unchanged from the previous advisory. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/1500Z 22.2N 125.3W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 20/0000Z 23.7N 126.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 20/1200Z 26.0N 126.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 21/0000Z 28.6N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 21/1200Z 31.5N 127.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 22/0000Z 34.0N 127.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/1200Z 36.0N 127.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Katz/Pasch
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