Issued at 200 AM MST Sun Jul 19 2026
000 WTPZ41 KNHC 190837 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Six-E Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062026 200 AM MST Sun Jul 19 2026 The tropical depression appears to be slowly becoming better organized this morning. However, after the prior advisory, an ASCAT-B scatterometer pass showed that the circulation remains broad and is still in the organizing stages. The latest subjective Dvorak classification from TAFB was T2.5/35 kt, but the objective intensity estimates are still in the 25-30 kt range. A blend of the subjective and objective estimates supports maintaining the initial intensity at 30 kt this advisory. The initial motion continues off to the west-northwest at 290/12 kt. The depression remains situated to the south of a mid-level ridge centered over Mexico, though a weakness exists to the northwest, created by the departing tropical storm Elida. Over the next few days, the mid-level ridge is expected to build westward, removing this weakness. Thus, while TD6-E may gain a bit of latitude in the 24-48 h period, a general west-northwestward motion is expected for most of the forecast. The tropical cyclone may even turn a bit leftward by the end of the forecast period. The latest NHC track forecast is just a little north of the prior track forecast, but remains close to the reliable TVCN and GDMI track aids. The aforementioned scatterometer data suggests it may take 12-24 h for the depression's wind field to contract and take advantage of the environmental conditions. Other than its short-term structure, these factors all appear quite favorable for significant intensification (low shear, ample moisture, very warm sea-surface temperatures). Thus, significant intensification is forecast after the next day or so, especially from 36-60 h where a period of rapid intensification is explicitly forecast. There is a negative factor beyond this time frame. The current forecast track of the depression takes the system toward ocean waters churned up by the circulation of tropical storm Elida. If the tropical cyclone moves over this cool wake, it could limit the storm's peak intensity beyond 72 h, with SHIPS guidance showing it close to straddling the 26 C isotherm. For now, the NHC intensity forecast still shows a peak intensity of 95 kt in 72 h, just shy of major hurricane intensity, with some modest weakening shown in days 4-5. The NHC intensity forecast is roughly in between the latest GDMI and HCCA intensity aids, but is notably higher than the HAFS-A/B guidance this cycle. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0900Z 12.1N 110.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 19/1800Z 12.5N 112.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 20/0600Z 13.2N 114.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 20/1800Z 14.4N 116.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 21/0600Z 15.5N 117.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 60H 21/1800Z 16.3N 119.3W 85 KT 100 MPH 72H 22/0600Z 16.8N 120.6W 95 KT 110 MPH 96H 23/0600Z 17.3N 124.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 24/0600Z 18.2N 129.0W 85 KT 100 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin
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