Issued at 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 190235 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 800 PM PDT Sat Jul 18 2026 Satellite imagery indicates that Elida is beginning to lose organization as it moves northward over sea surface temperatures below 26 degrees C. Deep convection has become concentrated over the southern semicircle, with warming cloud tops and diminishing convection north of the center. The latest subjective Dvorak intensity estimate from TAFB is T3.5/55 kt, in good agreement with the latest objective intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS. Based on the degraded satellite presentation and these intensity estimates, the initial intensity has been lowered to 55 kt. The initial motion is north-northwestward, or 330/11 kt. Elida is forecast to continue turning northward while gradually accelerating during the next couple of days as it becomes increasingly steered by a deep-layer trough off the California coast. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and only minor adjustments to the previous NHC forecast were required. Elida is beginning to move over sea-surface temperatures near 25 degrees C and will encounter progressively cooler waters during the next couple of days. In addition, increasing southwesterly vertical wind shear and drier mid-level air will lead to a steady weakening trend. Elida is forecast to lose its deep convection and become a remnant low in about 60 h. The remnant low should dissipate by day 4 well west of the California coast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/0300Z 20.6N 124.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 19/1200Z 21.9N 125.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 24H 20/0000Z 24.0N 126.6W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 20/1200Z 26.4N 127.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 21/0000Z 29.0N 127.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 21/1200Z 31.4N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 22/0000Z 33.9N 127.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Gibbs (CPHC)
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