Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1657

   Mesoscale Discussion 1657
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0646 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast NY...Long Island...and far
   southwest CT

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 182346Z - 190045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An eastward-moving band of thunderstorms will pose a
   localized risk of strong to damaging wind gusts for the next hour or
   so.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized band or thunderstorms is tracking
   eastward into Long Island. The KOKX VWP is sampling around 45 kt of
   line-orthogonal 0-6 km shear, which may continue to support an
   organized cold pool as it continues eastward, despite marginal
   buoyancy. Given the established cold pool, 30-40 kt of flow in the
   lowest 2 km, and at least neutral static stability in the boundary
   layer, strong to locally damaging wind gusts will be possible over
   the next hour or so. The overall severe risk is expected to remain
   too localized/marginal for a watch.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...

   LAT...LON   40417330 40467371 40667399 40947421 41187410 41327367
               41217298 40977259 40607272 40417330 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN