Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1649

   Mesoscale Discussion 1649
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1256 PM CDT Sat Jul 18 2026

   Areas affected...ortions of southern Virginia...western North
   Carolina...far northeast Tennessee...southeastern West Virginia

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 181756Z - 181900Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to
   increase in intensity this afternoon with a risk for damaging wind
   gusts.  Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch
   is likely.

   DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms continue to develop across the higher
   terrain of WV, NC and VA at 1755z, and also along a confluence zone
   extending from northern VA into western NC. Despite weak mid-level
   lapse rates, diurnal heating of a moist boundary layer has
   contributed to MLCAPE of 2000 to 3000 J/kg and low-level lapse rates
   of 8.5 to 9 deg/C. In the presence of minimal CINH, storms should
   continue to increase in coverage through the afternoon and move
   generally east. Shear in the cloud-bearing layer will average 20-25
   kts across northern portions of the discussion area and 15-20 kts
   farther south, sufficient for updraft organization and a risk for
   damaging wind gusts. 

   Trends are being monitored and a Severe Thunderstorm Watch will be
   needed shortly.

   ..Bunting/Thompson.. 07/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...LWX...RAH...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...

   LAT...LON   36938187 37458132 37957998 38207909 38197842 37907734
               37557681 36927645 36077666 35487802 35237929 35118087
               35298160 35678207 36228209 36938187 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN