Issued at 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026
000 WTPZ45 KNHC 170837 TCDEP5 Tropical Storm Elida Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052026 200 AM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026 A 0253 UTC GMI microwave pass suggested that Elida was attempting to develop a central ring of convection, but that process appears to have largely failed, likely due to some entrainment of dry air into the circulation. ASCAT data from 04-05 UTC also indicated that the wind field is quite asymmetric, with most of the tropical-storm-force winds extending well to the east and south of the center. The scatterometer data showed peak vectors of 50 kt, and combined with other satellite intensity estimates, the previous analyzed intensity of 55 kt remains valid. Center fixes from the ASCAT data suggested that Elida continues to move westward, or 280/9 kt. That said, a deep-layer trough is already entrenched off the west coast of the United States, and this feature should cause Elida to turn northwestward later today and then north-northwestward by Sunday. The most notable track model trend is for a faster, more eastward trajectory, especially at days 4 and 5, and the NHC official track forecast has been nudged in that direction. Elida still has about 24 hours to strengthen over warm waters and in a low-shear environment. However, if inner core convection can't get going soon, the chances of the cyclone becoming a hurricane will decrease quickly. For now, the official intensity forecast continues to follow the bulk of the guidance, showing Elida at hurricane strength later today into the early part of the weekend. Weakening should begin by 36-48 hours due to cooler waters and increasing shear, and given the trend toward a faster northward motion, Elida could lose organized deep convection and become post-tropical in 3 to 4 days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 16.1N 120.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 12H 17/1800Z 16.7N 121.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 24H 18/0600Z 17.9N 122.8W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 18/1800Z 19.3N 124.1W 70 KT 80 MPH 48H 19/0600Z 21.0N 125.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 60H 19/1800Z 22.8N 126.4W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 20/0600Z 24.9N 127.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 21/0600Z 29.4N 128.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 22/0600Z 33.0N 130.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Berg
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