Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1640

   Mesoscale Discussion 1640
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0202 AM CDT Fri Jul 17 2026

   Areas affected...Edwards Plateau of TX

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 170702Z - 170800Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The environment within a mesoscale area may continue to
   support a couple of weak supercells during the overnight.  A brief
   tornado is possible.

   DISCUSSION...KDFX radar imagery at 0700 UTC shows several distinct
   updrafts within a southwest to northeast-oriented thunderstorm
   cluster (i.e., evident via echo top imagery).  A stationary
   mid-level low over the Permian Basin will promote a persistent and
   unchanging flow regime across the Edwards Plateau and Hill Country
   through tonight.  KDFX VAD data has shown some modest enhancement to
   easterly to southerly flow within the surface to 2 km layer during
   the past 3 hours (i.e., strengthening of 5-10 kt).  Furthermore, the
   presence of a very moist boundary layer (lower to mid 70s F surface
   dewpoints) and adequate buoyancy may combine with the enlarged
   low-level hodographs to support intermittent supercell structures
   for the next several hours.  Accompanying this episodic
   intensification of a couple of storms into supercells, a brief
   tornado cannot be ruled out.  Will continue to monitor mesoscale
   trends.

   ..Smith.. 07/17/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...

   LAT...LON   29920076 30340064 30929953 30849913 30619902 30299906
               29610047 29650069 29920076 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH