Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1615

   Mesoscale Discussion 1615
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0522 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2026

   Areas affected...portions of central Montana

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 142222Z - 142345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Scattered thunderstorms should develop over the next few
   hours, posing a severe gust threat. A WW issuance may be needed
   pending greater storm coverage.

   DISCUSSION...Hints at convective initiation (via the detection of
   lightning with NLDN data) are underway along the eastern fringe of a
   cloud shield overspreading the northern Rockies in association with
   a 500 mb wind maximum grazing central MT. Here, surface temperatures
   are approaching 95 F amid mid 50s to lower 60s F surface dewpoints,
   yielding over 1000 J/kg MLCAPE. 30+ F surface temperature/dewpoint
   spreads are in place, with RAP forecast soundings showing an
   appreciably mixed boundary layer extending up to at least 700 mb. As
   such, if the mixing boundary layer can support the initiation of
   additional storms over the next few hours, evaporative cooling
   potential should be sufficient to support severe gusts with the
   heavier storm cores. An instance or two of severe hail also cannot
   be ruled out. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed
   if/when greater storm coverage becomes clearer.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 07/14/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...GGW...TFX...

   LAT...LON   46091177 47001101 47641022 48130872 48250737 48170675
               47750636 47000670 46340787 45720877 45500930 45410989
               45331073 46091177 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN