Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1593

   Mesoscale Discussion 1593
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0523 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 112223Z - 120030Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for isolated severe wind gusts will exist
   with ongoing storms this evening. The expected areal coverage of the
   threat will remain too limited to warrant a Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch consideration.

   DISCUSSION...An ongoing band of thunderstorms from central San
   Miguel into northwest Guadalupe Counties has recently shown some
   signs of forward propagation with a radar-defined fine line
   preceding the parent updrafts by 5-10 miles. The ambient inflow air
   mass exhibits fairly large temperature-dewpoint spreads, resulting
   in a well-mixed boundary layer featuring steep lapse rates. While
   overall buoyancy is relatively meager, the presence of the steep
   lapse rates may yield locally strong to severe wind gusts, as
   depicted in some more recent model guidance.

   ..Mead/Thompson.. 07/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   34880557 35250531 35540498 35700459 35550426 35110405
               34870381 34420374 34180396 34040424 34030480 34300531
               34880557 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH