Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1588

   Mesoscale Discussion 1588
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0156 PM CDT Sat Jul 11 2026

   Areas affected...much of northern into central Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 111856Z - 112130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Clusters of storms are expected to develop after 21Z, with
   locally damaging wind gusts and marginal hail from northern into
   parts of central Oklahoma.

   DISCUSSION...An MCV is moving across northwest OK, with a
   quasi-stationary boundary extending eastward near the OK/KS border
   and into northwest AR. Strong heating persists ahead of this
   feature, with increasing CU fields both within the low-level lapse
   rate plume and along the boundary.

   Continued heating and surface convergence will support scattered
   storms later this afternoon, within a moist and unstable air mass.
   MLCAPE is approaching 2000 J/kg, and dewpoints are holding in the
   mid 60s F within the zone of stronger mixing/heating upstream over
   west-central OK. 

   While shear is weak, winds do veer with height, which should support
   slow-moving storms with a strong southward component. Substantial
   PWAT along with favorable timing with max heating later today should
   support locally damaging winds with a few gusts over 70 mph. Brief
   hail may occur with the stronger cores initially.

   ..Jewell/Smith.. 07/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...

   LAT...LON   35899531 35899610 35619662 35059824 35129860 35259888
               35449893 35949845 36299823 36829817 36979805 37129759
               36999662 36959542 36849486 36379459 36069472 35899531 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN