Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1584

   Mesoscale Discussion 1584
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1101 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southeast MO...southern IL/IN...western KY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480...

   Valid 110401Z - 110600Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 480
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Strong to locally severe storms may continue into the
   early overnight hours.

   DISCUSSION...Loosely organized convection is ongoing late this
   evening from southeast MO into southern IL. Much of the convection
   across southern IL has become undercut by outflow, though large PW
   and moderate buoyancy may still support a threat of localized
   downbursts. There may be some potential for intensification of
   convection as the composite outflow moves eastward into a very moist
   environment across western KY. This may result in some wind-damage
   threat spreading east of WW 480, though weaker deep-layer shear with
   eastward extent should tend to limit the magnitude of any severe
   potential. 

   Farther west, elevated convection developing near and just north of
   a surface boundary across southwest MO may eventually develop or
   spread eastward into south-central/southeast MO overnight. Modest
   deep-layer flow/shear should tend to limit storm organization,
   though localized downbursts and perhaps isolated hail could
   accompany the strongest storms within this regime.

   ..Dean.. 07/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36668969 36699018 36789144 36949177 37869185 38109178
               38299001 38198884 37968770 37928708 37928639 37828617
               37268595 36698598 36708739 36668969 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN