US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1582

Published Date and Time: 2026-07-10 20:27:00



   Mesoscale Discussion 1582
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0726 PM CDT Fri Jul 10 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern MO into southern IL and
   far western KY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479...480...

   Valid 110026Z - 110200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 479, 480
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Small storm clusters capable of producing wind damage may
   continue through the evening.

   DISCUSSION...At 0015 UTC, a small but long-lived storm cluster is
   moving along I-70 between Columbia and St. Louis. Some wind damage
   was reported in the Columbia area, and strong inbound velocities are
   currently observed from the KLSX radar. This cluster may continue
   propagating along a surface theta-e gradient, with rich moisture
   (dewpoints in the 70s F and PW above 2 inches), moderate buoyancy,
   and sufficient low-level flow and deep-layer shear supporting a
   continued damaging wind threat as this cluster approaches the
   Mississippi River. 

   To the east, another storm cluster across southwest IL may also
   continue to propagate along the theta-e/buoyancy gradient, posing a
   threat of wind damage into a larger portion of southern IL through
   the evening. 

   Farther south, a measured severe gust was recently observed near
   West Plains in south-central MO, near another developing storm
   cluster. Deep-layer shear is weaker in this area, but strong
   downstream buoyancy may allow for modest upscale growth and a
   continued wind damage threat this evening into southeast MO (as
   depicted by some recent HRRR runs).

   ..Dean.. 07/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...MEG...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   36589224 38869203 39239186 39009000 38398832 37538806
               36818845 36568898 36509012 36549165 36589224 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN



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