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Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1570

Published Date and Time: 2026-07-10 00:45:00



Mesoscale Discussion 1570
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1570
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1112 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of southeast MO into extreme southern
   IL/southwest KY

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...

   Valid 100412Z - 100545Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A localized severe threat may continue into the early
   morning hours.

   DISCUSSION...Earlier convection has generally become disorganized
   across southeast MO, though some uptick in storm intensity has been
   noted near the southern and eastern periphery of the ongoing
   cluster. Rich low-level moisture, moderate buoyancy, and a modest
   increase in low-level flow (noted on the KSGF and KPAH VWPs) will
   continue to support deep convection into the early overnight hours
   across the region. However, marginal deep-layer shear and the
   complex/messy storm mode may temper the organized severe threat with
   time. Until a more definitive weakening trend occurs, localized wind
   damage and perhaps marginal hail will remain possible. Additional
   watch issuance is not currently anticipated, though local extension
   of WW 477 may be considered, if a notable uptick in storm
   organization occurs prior to the 05 UTC expiration time.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 07/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...SGF...

   LAT...LON   37929193 38049040 37918966 37378885 36928877 36628897
               36618944 36639011 36659074 36789131 36959163 37339206
               37929193 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN


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