Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1569

   Mesoscale Discussion 1569
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1023 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast ND into northeast SD and extreme
   west-central MN

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...

   Valid 100323Z - 100530Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind and hail will continue
   southeastward through late evening, though an eventual weakening
   trend is expected.

   DISCUSSION...A persistent cluster of storms with embedded supercell
   structures is moving southeastward across southeast ND late this
   evening. A few measured severe gusts and reports of wind damage have
   recently been noted, while MRMS hail-size estimates continue to
   occasionally exceed severe criteria. While a favorable combination
   of buoyancy and deep-layer shear is in place downstream of this
   cluster, nocturnal cooling and increasing MLCINH is expected to
   result in a gradual weakening trend by near/after midnight CDT.
   Given the forward-propagating nature of this cluster, some threat
   for severe wind and/or hail may eventually move out of WW 476 into
   parts of northeast SD and extreme west-central MN. Short-term trends
   will continue to be monitored regarding any need for downstream
   watch issuance.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 07/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46800035 47119829 46989763 46759686 46279597 46069576
               45479613 45389665 45369811 45489891 45749966 45859985
               46000027 46410052 46800035 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN