Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1568

   Mesoscale Discussion 1568
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0906 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

   Areas affected...Central and southeastern Missouri

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477...

   Valid 100206Z - 100330Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 477
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat within WW 477 continues until midnight CDT.
   Severe storms capable of primarily damaging winds, and perhaps a
   tornado or two, will be possible with storms in and around the watch
   area.

   DISCUSSION...Clusters of thunderstorms in central Missouri continue
   to grow in intensity and spatial coverage this evening. MLCAPE >
   2000 J/kg and locally enhanced hodographs in the vicinity of diffuse
   surface boundary should support continued organization of convection
   and perhaps transient supercells. These storms will be capable of
   primarily damaging straight-line winds, but given the curvature of
   the hodograph/increased helicity, a tornado or two cannot be ruled
   out. However, disorganized storm-mode and nocturnal stabilization of
   the boundary layer suggest a tornado threat should be limited.

   ..Halbert.. 07/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38489355 38699292 38699168 38559113 38219064 37869035
               37489027 36839051 36519088 36489163 36629233 37009326
               37189364 37989369 38489355 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN