Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1566

   Mesoscale Discussion 1566
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0820 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

   Areas affected...southwest NE into western KS

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475...

   Valid 100120Z - 100245Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for severe wind and isolated hail may continue
   through mid/late evening.

   DISCUSSION...A loosely organized QLCS is ongoing at 0105 UTC across
   eastern CO, with measured gusts of 50-70 mph observed over the last
   hour. The downstream environment remains favorable for organized
   convection, with MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg and moderate
   deep-layer shear. Some increase in MLCINH is also underway with the
   onset of nocturnal cooling. As a result, the longevity and
   organization of the ongoing convective line is somewhat uncertain
   into mid/late evening. However, with relatively moist low-level
   easterly flow and somewhat greater downstream moisture/instability
   in place, maintenance of the ongoing line and an eastward
   progression of the severe-wind threat (with localized 75+ mph gusts)
   appears possible into mid/late evening. Isolated hail also remains
   possible with any remaining semi-discrete cells. Downstream watch
   issuance is possible by 9 PM CDT.

   ..Dean/Thompson.. 07/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

   LAT...LON   41010199 41030116 41050040 40849966 39829913 39259887
               38949893 38259933 37709989 37630032 37590076 37630200
               38010199 39060189 41010199 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN