Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1565

   Mesoscale Discussion 1565
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0723 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of central/eastern ND

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476...

   Valid 100023Z - 100200Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 476
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A threat for isolated large hail will continue into the
   evening, along with some increase in severe-wind potential. A
   tornado or two is also possible.

   DISCUSSION...A few semi-discrete supercells are moving southeastward
   across central/northeast ND early this evening. MLCAPE of 2500-3500
   J/kg and moderate deep-layer shear will continue to support
   supercells through the early evening, with large to locally very
   large hail possible. Some southeastward acceleration has recently
   been noted with this supercell cluster, which may be indicative of
   an expanding cold pool. Any further upscale growth could result in
   an increasing severe-wind threat as storms spread southeastward.
   Also, while low-level flow is not particularly strong, modest
   low-level veering (as noted in the KBIS VWP) and presence of
   sustained supercell structures could also support potential for a
   tornado or two.

   ..Dean.. 07/10/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47290085 48099921 48149868 48159828 48069808 47969780
               47659757 47469752 47149770 46859807 46579889 46549980
               46710054 47290085 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...85-110 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN