Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1564

   Mesoscale Discussion 1564
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0650 PM CDT Thu Jul 09 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern CO into western KS and far southwest NE

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475...

   Valid 092350Z - 100115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 475
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The severe-wind threat may increase into this evening, in
   addition to a continued isolated hail threat.

   DISCUSSION...Convection across eastern CO has gradually evolved into
   more of a linear mode as of 2345 UTC. Steep low-level lapse rates,
   favorable low-level easterly flow, and increasing moisture/buoyancy
   downstream of this convection may result in an increasing
   severe-wind threat into the evening. MLCAPE of near/above 1500 J/kg
   and moderate deep-layer shear will remain supportive of organized
   convection, and a swath of 60-80 mph gusts will be possible if a
   more organized cold pool can evolve with time. The strongest
   embedded updrafts and cells ahead of or along the periphery of the
   developing line will also continue to pose a threat of isolated
   large hail into early evening.

   ..Dean.. 07/09/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40110353 40490309 40800270 40820207 40630132 40140114
               39740106 38420140 38120155 37980164 37690187 37700257
               37740315 38000343 38300346 38450333 38720315 38980316
               39350318 40110353 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN