Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1549

   Mesoscale Discussion 1549
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0621 PM CDT Wed Jul 08 2026

   Areas affected...Western to northeast Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471...473...

   Valid 082321Z - 090115Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 471, 473
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Corridors of severe wind potential will likely emerge
   across west-central and northeast Iowa over the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...The early stages of deeper cold pool development are
   noted within a convective cluster in far southeast MN/northeast IA
   and within an emerging band of convection to northwest of the Des
   Moines area. This likely signals a transition from semi-discrete
   supercell/multi-cell storms into a more linear storm mode across
   both regions. Downstream, temperatures remain in the low to mid 80s
   with an axis of around 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE draped ahead of both
   clusters, and regional VWPs hint that deep-layer wind shear values
   are around 30 knots, which appears to be slightly stronger than
   depicted by latest mesoanalyses. Although low-level lapse rates
   downstream are not overly favorable for downdraft accelerations, the
   observed radar trends and downstream environment hint that a couple
   of corridors of strong to severe winds will likely emerge across
   western and northeast IA over the next few hours. This scenario is
   supported by recent HRRR solutions, which suggest peak wind speeds
   between 60-70 mph will be possible as the clusters/lines become
   better organized.

   ..Moore.. 07/08/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DVN...ARX...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...

   LAT...LON   43629187 43179120 42869101 42619097 42369109 42159144
               41179481 41179534 41309567 41729588 42099602 42219607
               42509575 42819474 43309357 43659268 43709233 43629187 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN