Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1536

   Mesoscale Discussion 1536
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0624 PM CDT Tue Jul 07 2026

   Areas affected...Southeast North Dakota into northeast South Dakota
   and far west-central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469...

   Valid 072324Z - 080130Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 469
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Intensifying elevated convection along the Dakota border
   will likely pose some threat for large hail and perhaps severe winds
   through the late evening. Expansion of WW 469 into northeast South
   Dakota or a new watch may be warranted, though it is uncertain how
   far north the threat will manifest into North Dakota.

   DISCUSSION...Over the past 30 minutes, elevated thunderstorms have
   developed and steadily intensified along and north of the ND/SD
   border. This activity is maturing within a MUCAPE gradient where
   buoyancy values range from around 500 J/kg across southeast ND to
   around 2000 J/kg further south into SD in the vicinity of a
   stationary/warm front. The passage of a mid-level jet to the north
   is supporting elongated hodographs featuring effective bulk shear
   values on the order of 40-50 knots. This kinematic environment will
   favor storm organization, possibly into supercells, though storm
   propagation along the zone of initiation and the buoyancy gradient
   will likely favor clustering with time - especially after 00 UTC
   when thunderstorm coverage should increase with the emergence of the
   low-level jet. 

   Regardless, the convective environment will likely support a severe
   hail threat and possibly a severe wind threat given relatively moist
   low-level conditions downstream, especially across northeast SD
   within the more unstable air mass where dewpoints are largely in the
   60s. This will likely warrant northeastward expansion of WW 469 into
   northeast SD, or a new watch.

   ..Moore.. 07/07/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   46189605 45799607 45559626 45349663 45249702 45219813
               45239924 45270018 45360087 45480104 45870091 46190044
               46459997 46649928 46579643 46449616 46189605 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN