Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1522

   Mesoscale Discussion 1522
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0111 PM CDT Mon Jul 06 2026

   Areas affected...Eastern North Dakota...northwest
   Minnesota...northeast South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely 

   Valid 061811Z - 062015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Large hail and severe winds are possible with initial
   supercells that will eventually grow upscale into a more organized
   cluster/MCS. A watch is likely this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...A slow moving cold front continues southeastward within
   the northern Plains. Though influence from the shortwave trough in
   Canada is minimal, areas of strong heating of and upper 60s to low
   70s F dewpoint airmass is allowing cumulus to deepen along parts of
   the boundary. Additionally, mid-level convection will move eastward
   through the Dakotas and may gradually root near the surface. The
   strongest initial development will likely occur along the Canadian
   border in northwest Minnesota given the greater surface heating and
   nominally greater mid-level ascent. Effective shear of 35-40 kt will
   support a mixture of supercells and multicells. With time, linear
   forcing along the cold front and cold pool mergers will lead to a
   broader linear structure. Initial supercells would be capable of
   large hail up to 2 inches. As activity congeals, severe wind
   gusts/wind damage would become more likely. The environment into the
   Mississippi Valley becomes less favorable. Movement of storms toward
   the south/southeast into the greater buoyancy is expected with time.

   ..Wendt/Hart.. 07/06/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45739785 46109810 48279763 49079707 49179637 48959581
               46519627 45859646 45659673 45739785 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN