Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1511

   Mesoscale Discussion 1511
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0146 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026

   Areas affected...portions of north/northwest Texas

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 051846Z - 052045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm coverage/intensity will gradually increase
   over the next couple of hours. Isolated large hail and damaging wind
   gusts possible. Area is being monitored for possible severe
   thunderstorm watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...An outflow boundary from overnight convection is
   located from near the Red River northwestward into the southern TX
   Panhandle early this afternoon. Scattered elevated thunderstorms
   have developed across southern OK in a low-level warm advection
   regime. This activity at times has shown gradual strengthening with
   MRMS MESH approaching 1 inch and 7 km CAPPI showing increasing
   reflectivity cores aloft. At least weak inhibition is noted in SPC
   Mesoanalysis, and was present at 12z from FWD and 18z from AMA
   RAOBs. Additional heating/moistening should erode MLCIN over the
   next 1-2 hour. 

   A growing cumulus field along and south of the outflow boundary, and
   MLCAPE now around 1000-2000 J/kg suggests storms will increase in
   coverage/intensity soon after capping has diminished, most likely by
   20-21z. Deep-layer flow is rather modest, but vertically veering
   wind profiles will support sufficient effective shear for supercell
   profiles. Initial thunderstorms may pose a risk of large hail and
   strong outflow gusts. With time, convection may congeal into a
   forward propagating cluster, with an accompany risk from damaging
   winds toward evening. Portions of the MCD area may need a severe
   thunderstorm watch within the next couple hours.

   ..Leitman/Hart.. 07/05/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   33460301 33990314 34410312 34750311 34910264 34860216
               34690129 34469984 34299839 34079755 33749707 33439692
               33109697 32789720 32489754 32249808 32159913 32310058
               32680166 33460301 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN