Mesoscale Discussion 1509
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Sun Jul 05 2026
Areas affected...northeast Ohio...into western Pennsylvania
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 051724Z - 052030Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Storms may increase in coverage this afternoon, with
isolated severe wind gusts or even a brief/weak tornado.
DISCUSSION...An MCV/cluster of thunderstorms continues to move
eastward across northern OH and into northwest PA/western NY, which
is also along the instability gradient. Wind fields are generally
weak, but may be locally enhanced near this feature. The 12Z BUF
sounding shows a bit stronger deep-layer shear over 30 kt, which may
help sustain a few cells.
As heating occurs ahead of the MCV, a few of the cells may acquire
at least weak rotation and longevity, which will maximize damaging
wind, small/marginal hail, and brief/weak tornado potential. Given
the weakness in the shear overall, a watch is not currently
anticipated.
..Jewell/Hart.. 07/05/2026
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...
LAT...LON 41078245 41218200 41378135 41668068 42087983 42277912
42147850 41817822 41437838 40778007 40558114 40508211
40578243 40858259 41078245
MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN
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