Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1502

   Mesoscale Discussion 1502
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0534 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Areas affected...North central and northwest Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460...

   Valid 042234Z - 050000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 460
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Developing storm clusters will pose an increasing threat
   for severe outflow gusts of 80+ mph into this evening while
   spreading southeastward.

   DISCUSSION...Two storm clusters have developed - one near the
   outflow/front intersection in southern KS and another along the
   front in northwest OK.  New storm development may also occur along
   the front between the two, with a larger cluster possibly evolving
   through late evening.  Deep-layer shear is sufficient for
   supercells, especially along the residual outflow boundary in
   northern OK.  The environment downstream from these clusters appears
   favorable for hybrid microbursts with deep inverted-V profiles and
   large buoyancy with hot surface temperatures and sufficient moisture
   to keep storms going into early tonight.  Deep-layer vertical shear
   will be sufficient for some cluster organization.  As a result, the
   potential for severe outflow gusts is expected to increase through
   00z in northwest and north central OK, where a few gusts could
   exceed 80 mph.  Additionally, the strongest/embedded supercells will
   be capable of producing large hail in the 1.5-2.5 inch diameter
   range.

   ..Thompson.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   36979713 36809647 36619636 36249622 36139678 36009733
               35769826 35859874 36049890 36249883 36649812 36939756
               36979713 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN