Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1494

   Mesoscale Discussion 1494
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0205 PM CDT Sat Jul 04 2026

   Areas affected...Portions of southern NY...north-central/northeast
   PA...and northern NJ

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 041905Z - 042130Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...The area is being monitored for an increasing risk of
   severe thunderstorms this afternoon. The primary concern is damaging
   wind gusts. A watch is likely.

   DISCUSSION...The latest visible satellite imagery indicates an
   east/west-oriented band of deepening boundary-layer cumulus across
   northern PA -- within a zone of broadly confluent low-level flow.
   Thunderstorms should continue increasing in coverage and intensity
   within this zone over the next few hours, given ample diurnal
   heating/destabilization of a moist air mass (upper 60s to lower 70s
   dewpoints). Steepening low-level lapse rates and around 30-40 kt of
   unidirectional shear should promote several organized clusters
   capable of producing scattered damaging wind gusts through the
   afternoon. An additional focus for severe thunderstorms is evident
   downstream of Lake Ontario, where an MCV and related thunderstorms
   will continue eastward into the diurnally destabilizing air mass.
   These storms will also pose a risk of damaging wind gusts as they
   intercept the unstable air.

   ..Weinman/Hart.. 07/04/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...BUF...CTP...

   LAT...LON   42977639 42777539 42467446 42187406 41587395 40947431
               40367544 40567693 40847778 41257819 41787840 42167828
               42557787 42847717 42977639 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN