Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1458

   Mesoscale Discussion 1458
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0847 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Southwest Minnesota and adjacent portions of South
   Dakota and Iowa

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443...

   Valid 030147Z - 030345Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 443
   continues.

   SUMMARY...A weakening trend has been observed over the past 1-2
   hours across southwest Minnesota. This trend should continue into
   the late evening hours, but some wind/hail threat may persist for
   the short term.

   DISCUSSION...A gradual weakening trend of an MCS has been observed
   in GOES IR imagery and MRMS echo tops over the past 60-90 minutes
   across southwest MN. Additionally, a surging outflow boundary is
   clearly evident in KFSD reflectivity/velocity data, and the KFSD VWP
   only sampled around 30-40 knot winds within the lowest few
   kilometers as the line passed. Further weakening is anticipated for
   the northern section of the line as it begins to migrate out of the
   regional buoyancy axis and into a more stable air mass. 

   Farther south, some degree of re-development along the outflow is
   noted along and north of the I-90 corridor in southwest MN. Here,
   dewpoints in the mid 70s are supporting a pocket of slightly higher
   buoyancy and somewhat weaker inhibition, which may allow for further
   re-development along the outflow boundary. An upstream RAOB from OAX
   sampled 30-35 knot mid-level winds and similar effective bulk shear
   values, which suggests that any new convection could see some degree
   of organization (though this appears improbable based on the
   undercutting nature of the outflow). Consequently, a relatively
   higher potential for severe hail and/or wind over the next couple of
   hours will likely reside across far southwest MN into adjacent
   portions of SD/IA. Beyond the next few hours, further weakening is
   expected as the band of storms continues to migrate into a more
   stable air mass across south-central MN and north-central IA.

   ..Moore.. 07/03/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   42979672 43029704 43189724 43349735 43529738 43639738
               43749701 43749662 43829626 44009606 44299588 44699583
               44959580 45079572 45299545 45409505 45369473 45249451
               45059432 44739424 44479423 44049423 43709427 43419432
               43159459 42979503 42909548 42929616 42979672 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN