Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1452

   Mesoscale Discussion 1452
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0552 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Southwest Minnesota...northwest Iowa...and far
   northeast Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 022252Z - 030015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorms ongoing in South Dakota will likely
   spread east into central and southern Minnesota, and possibly far
   northern Iowa and far northeast Nebraska, in the next few hours.
   Watch issuance is expected soon.

   DISCUSSION...A band severe thunderstorms ongoing across eastern SD
   has a history of producing several severe wind gusts, including a
   gust to 90 mph. Southward development of this line is also noted in
   recent radar trends. Downstream, some lingering inhibition is noted
   across southern MN, and MLCAPE generally decreases with eastward
   extent. However, the presence of a well-established cold pool within
   the MCS and 35-40 knots of effective shear will likely compensate
   for the modest thermodynamic environment and support the potential
   for further strong/severe storms downstream through the evening
   hours. Watch issuance is expected soon to address this concern.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FGF...FSD...OAX...ABR...

   LAT...LON   45429655 45659658 45779626 45869553 45719481 45189412
               44639387 43879405 43259432 42679473 42329518 42129636
               42129708 42379743 42669759 42909751 43239684 43509647
               43529646 44459642 45129643 45429655 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN