Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1443

   Mesoscale Discussion 1443
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0318 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Upstate New York into Vermont

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 022018Z - 022215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...Strong to isolated severe thunderstorms are expected to
   move from Ontario into Upstate New York/Vermont. While these storms
   could be capable of 55-60 MPH winds, weather watch issuance is not
   anticipated at this time.

   DISCUSSION...A cluster of thunderstorms in Ontario is expected to
   move eastward into Upstate New York and portions of northern Vermont
   this afternoon. MLCAPE > 2500 J/kg and 30-40 kts of deep layer shear
   suggests continued thunderstorm longevity and intermittent
   organization that could support strong to severe wind gusts of 55-60
   MPH. However, the overall isolated nature of this convection means
   watch issuance is not anticipated at this time.

   ..Halbert/Hart.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   43727662 44167685 44487679 44837663 45057635 45227601
               45597504 45627385 45457307 45027274 44497280 43917340
               43577448 43527560 43667635 43727662 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH