Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1438

   Mesoscale Discussion 1438
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1216 PM CDT Thu Jul 02 2026

   Areas affected...Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 021716Z - 021945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A severe thunderstorm watch is being considered for Middle
   Tennessee into portions of northern Alabama this afternoon in
   anticipation of thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts.

   DISCUSSION...Based on the 12Z OHX sounding and current surface
   observations, surface heating is beginning to reach and exceed
   convective temperatures across much of the Southeast. Visible
   satellite trends show a cumulus field increasing in both extent and
   depth, and HRRR-based mesoanalysis shows MLCINH effectively gone
   across much of Middle Tennessee into northern Alabama. While
   convective activity has yet to develop, the expectation is that
   convective initiation should occur by mid-afternoon. Given steep
   mid-level lapse rates from the 12Z OHX sounding (a new daily max
   record of 7.5 C/km), modest precipitable water content of 1.72 in,
   and generally weak flow aloft, thunderstorms will be capable of
   intense downdrafts with strong to severe wind gusts. While the upper
   flow generally doesn't support convective organization, storms may
   organize along outflow boundaries that will pose locally higher
   risks for damaging winds. Conditions will continue to be monitored
   for a severe thunderstorm watch this afternoon.

   ..Halbert/Hart.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...LMK...OHX...BMX...HUN...PAH...MEG...

   LAT...LON   36818797 36868734 36818676 36748646 36658627 36378608
               36068594 35778586 35488585 35028589 34538600 34178616
               34108622 33988651 34018757 34128824 34228851 34578904
               35248932 35588934 36078908 36648844 36818797 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN