Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1433

   Mesoscale Discussion 1433
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1028 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...Far southeast MN...far northeast IA...and
   western/central WI

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434...

   Valid 020328Z - 020500Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for damaging wind gusts continues across
   parts of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 434, especially over parts of
   western Wisconsin and vicinity in the near term. Convective trends
   are being monitored for a possible downstream watch.

   DISCUSSION...The latest radar data from ARX depicts gradual
   organization/intensification of a small north/south-oriented
   convective cluster moving eastward across far southeast MN and
   northeast IA. These storms will continue tracking along/immediately
   south of a surface boundary/wind shift, generally demarcated by a
   band of elevated thunderstorms. To the south of the boundary, a
   warm/moist PBL and around 35 kt of unidirectional 0-3 km shear (per
   ARX VWP) may support a locally favorable corridor for damaging winds
   with this cluster of storms and any new development along/south of
   the boundary with eastward extent. Convective trends are being
   monitored for a possible downstream watch.

   ..Weinman.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GRB...MKX...ARX...

   LAT...LON   43139029 43099149 43189182 43589180 43869150 44129062
               44238945 44098892 43768880 43378896 43139029 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN