Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026
000 WTPZ44 KNHC 020232 TCDEP4 Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026 800 PM PDT Wed Jul 01 2026 Convection is increasing on the northern side of Douglas, albeit a fair distance away from the center of the large circulation. There has been little change in recent satellite classifications, so the initial wind speed will stay 35 kt. Douglas basically has the overnight convective maximum period left to intensify before it encounters drier air, higher shear, and cooler SSTs. Thus the NHC intensity forecast shows a brief peak at 12 h and then a slow weakening until dissipation. None of the global models are producing any organized convection after 36 h, so that will be the expected time Douglas becomes a remnant low. Little change was made to the prior intensity forecast. Douglas continues moving northward at about 6 kt. This motion is forecast through Thursday as the storm moves between a mid-level ridge to the east and a mid-level trough to the west. On Friday, a northwest turn is anticipated as the then weaker system becomes more steered by the low-level flow. The biggest change to note is that much of the skillful guidance is keeping this system intact for longer due to the nearby trough. The result is the system gains more latitude by the end of the forecast before succumbing to very hostile conditions. The latest NHC track forecast is shifted to the north especially beyond 24 hours, but still lies south of the Google DeepMind and NOAA corrected-consensus HCCA models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0300Z 16.5N 127.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1200Z 17.2N 127.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 03/0000Z 18.4N 127.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 03/1200Z 19.7N 127.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0000Z 20.9N 128.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1200Z 21.8N 129.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0000Z 22.5N 130.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
Source link