Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1431

   Mesoscale Discussion 1431
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0709 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...Parts of northern Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 020009Z - 020145Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple strong storms may pose a risk of locally damaging
   gusts and marginally severe hail during the next couple hours.

   DISCUSSION...Ahead of a cold front and in the vicinity of
   pre-frontal differential heating zone, isolated thunderstorms are
   developing in northern MN -- aided by an approaching midlevel
   trough. Despite marginal surface-based buoyancy, relatively steep
   deep-layer lapse rates and an elongated/straight hodograph (around
   30-40 kt of effective shear) could promote transient storm
   organization. Locally damaging wind gusts and marginally severe hail
   cannot be ruled out with the stronger cores that evolve during the
   next couple hours.

   ..Weinman/Thompson.. 07/02/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...

   LAT...LON   47489267 47299341 47309481 47579555 47779590 48299592
               48779567 49009493 48989426 48769310 48409242 47809227
               47489267 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN