Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1417

   Mesoscale Discussion 1417
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Wed Jul 01 2026

   Areas affected...Northern Georgia into Northern Alabama and southern
   Tennessee

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 011729Z - 011930Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorm development is expected in the coming hours.
   Isolated to perhaps scattered strong/severe wind gusts are expected
   as thunderstorm coverage increases within a very unstable
   environment. Trends are being monitored for watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES imagery and regional web cams show steady
   cumulus development and deepening across the southern Appalachians
   in northern GA and southern TN with at least a couple of early
   attempts at deep convection noted near Birmingham, AL. Any lingering
   inhibition is quickly being removed as temperatures continue to warm
   into the low to mid 90s, which will support an increasing
   probability for sustained convective initiation within the next 1-2
   hours as parcels approach their convective temperatures and
   localized orographic ascent along terrain features increases.
   Initially isolated convection will eventually grow upscale into
   multi-cell clusters as development along outflow boundaries
   increases given weak low-level flow within a very buoyant ambient
   environment. With time, one or more loosely organized clusters
   should emerge and propagate westward given the 25-30 knot 4-5 km
   flow aloft sampled by regional VWPs.

   The combination of seasonally rich low-level moisture (dewpoints in
   the mid 70s and PWATs between 1.75 to 2 inches), steepening
   low-level lapse rates, and very high buoyancy (MLCAPE upwards of
   3500 J/kg) will promote the development of intense, but localized,
   wet downbursts capable of producing strong/severe winds (most likely
   45-60 mph). Downburst potential will gradually increase in tandem
   with thunderstorm coverage and daytime heating through late
   afternoon. Convective trends will be monitored, and watch issuance
   may be needed for portions of the region if thunderstorm coverage
   becomes sufficiently widespread and/or one or more propagating
   clusters emerges.

   ..Moore/Guyer.. 07/01/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GSP...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   33068510 32978535 32888589 32948663 33168729 33388765
               33758789 34228799 34718791 34988778 35188741 35258703
               35318412 35268365 35178344 34908326 34638327 34188373
               33658422 33198483 33068510 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN