Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1396

   Mesoscale Discussion 1396
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 AM CDT Tue Jun 30 2026

   Areas affected...Central New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch likely 

   Valid 301623Z - 301830Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

   SUMMARY...Damaging wind potential is expected to increase this
   afternoon with gusts of 60-70 mph possible. Isolated occurrences of
   large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or two may also occur.

   DISCUSSION...Volumetric radar data from KTYX indicate a bow echo
   with a well-defined rear-inflow jet moving southeast at around 50
   kt. Extrapolation of current motion takes the bow echo to the
   vicinity of Watertown, NY, between 1:00-1:30 PM EDT. Visible
   satellite imagery shows considerable mid/upper-level cloudiness and
   some elevated convection ahead of the MCS across the Tug Hill
   region; however, stronger heating is occurring across the Finger
   Lakes and far western NY with latest objective analysis indicating
   MLCAPE of 1500-2500 J/kg. Persistent westerly low-level flow will
   advect that more unstable air mass into the region ahead of the MCS.

   The current KTYX VWP indicates a vertically wind profile with 40-50
   kt of northwesterly flow above 4-5 km, yielding sufficient vertical
   shear for the continuation of the bow echo into central NY this
   afternoon. Damaging winds will be the primary hazard with gusts of
   60-70 mph possible. Some large hail is possible along the western
   flank of the system, which will be exposed to an EML plume 
   spreading into the region from the upper Great Lakes. Additionally,
   the presence of modest low-level shear may support the potential for
   a brief tornado or two in association with embedded mesovortices.

   ..Mead/Guyer.. 06/30/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ALY...BGM...BUF...

   LAT...LON   42927781 43747762 44377698 44357626 43407514 42637468
               42157500 42207590 42277729 42927781 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN