Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1354

   Mesoscale Discussion 1354
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0459 PM CDT Sat Jun 27 2026

   Areas affected...portions of eastern North Carolina

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404...

   Valid 272159Z - 272300Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404
   continues.

   SUMMARY...The potential for occasionally damaging wind gusts
   continues across portions of Severe Thunderstorm Watch 404,
   including eastern North Carolina.

   DISCUSSION...Ongoing thunderstorm activity has congealed into a
   convective cluster extending from near New Bern, NC, into the
   northern Outer Banks, with a couple of wind gusts measured in the
   40-45 mph range over the past 1-2 hours. While weak effective shear
   (generally 25 kts or less) will continue to limit storm
   organization, around 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and a very moist air mass
   (PWAT values of 2+ inches) will continue to promote water-loaded
   downdrafts capable of strong to occasionally damaging wind gusts as
   this cluster progresses eastward before eventually moving offshore.
   Locally greater potential may exist along the northern portions of
   the cluster where the latest objective analysis suggests that
   mid-level flow and effective shear are marginally greater.

   ..Chalmers.. 06/27/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...AKQ...MHX...

   LAT...LON   35137539 35107546 35037567 34937591 34857606 34817627
               34797662 34857705 34877738 34957753 35167752 35457723
               35847668 36257615 36377581 36317562 36127547 35827528
               35457523 35127532 35137539 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH