Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1307

   Mesoscale Discussion 1307
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0717 AM CDT Thu Jun 25 2026

   Areas affected...parts of southern Kansas into far northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 251217Z - 251415Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...A storm complex over western Kansas may persist this
   morning, resulting in a corridor of damaging wind and marginal hail.
   A brief tornado cannot be ruled out near the warm front.

   DISCUSSION...A storm complex has developed over west-central KS this
   morning near a warm front. Substantial low-level moisture already
   exists in this region, and south of the warm front which extends
   into south-central KS and northeast KS.

   Lift associated with a weak midlevel wave, as well as increasing
   southerly boundary-layer winds will maintain a moist and unstable
   air mass into the warm frontal zone this morning into the midday
   period. Given the size of the existing cluster, further
   destabilization, favorable shear and lift along this warm front, a
   corridor of wind damage is possible. Transient hail cores in any
   leading cells will also be possible, though wind/MCS is most likely.
   The latest DDC VWP shows a supercell profile, with over 200 m2/s2
   effective SRH supporting transient supercell structures within the
   complex.

   ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/25/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38520055 38359887 38089773 37869726 37569713 37179724
               36799778 36849850 37199990 37550055 38310086 38520055 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN