Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1282

   Mesoscale Discussion 1282
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0540 PM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

   Areas affected...portions of Minnesota into far western Wisconsin

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 232240Z - 240015Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms continue to
   pose a risk for isolated large hail and perhaps a brief tornado or
   two. Watch issuance remains uncertain.

   DISCUSSION...Convective coverage has gradually increased across
   portions of Minnesota through early evening along a surface
   boundary. Isolated, transient supercell structures have been noted
   with this activity and have produced sporadic reports of brief
   funnel clouds and hail up to 1.75 inches in diameter over the past
   couple of hours. Expectation is for this activity to persist for at
   least another couple of hours, with two areas of locally greater
   severe potential evident within the broader discussion area.

   Across north-central Minnesota, isolated thunderstorms along an
   occluded front have shown brief upticks in intensity. Should a
   stronger cell become better established, isolated large hail and
   perhaps a brief tornado may be possible. Farther south, ongoing
   convection across south-central Minnesota continues to display signs
   of modest organization. The strongest cells continue to pose a risk
   for isolated large hail and a brief tornado, particularly with any
   cells that favorably interact with the surface warm front. Watch
   issuance remains uncertain owing to generally limited/marginal
   thermodynamic profiles and the isolated nature of the severe threat.

   ..Chalmers/Smith.. 06/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...ARX...MPX...FGF...FSD...

   LAT...LON   45279580 46749593 47419594 47739584 47929560 47989504
               47909465 47679432 46579409 46039398 45529382 45199332
               44949258 44709198 44519179 44249180 43999216 43909359
               43939460 44019527 44129554 44529575 45279580 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN