Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1269

   Mesoscale Discussion 1269
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0557 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

   Areas affected...southwest Kansas into northwest Oklahoma and the
   northeast Texas Panhandle

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 231057Z - 231330Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...Storm coverage continues to increase this morning, with
   sporadic hail likely. The area is being monitored for potential
   upscale growth and watch potential for damaging wind downstream.

   DISCUSSION...Storms have increased in coverage over the last couple
   hours, as the low-level jet gradually veers towards southerly,
   bringing a very moist air mass northward atop the relatively cool
   surface air mass. MUCAPE is likely above 2000 J/kg, with upstream
   PWAT measured at 1.77" near OKC. West to northwest midlevel winds
   around 30 kt combined with the backed low-level winds are resulting
   in effective shear over 40 kt.

   In the near term, localized hail up to 1.75" appears possible in the
   stronger cells, with perhaps an increase in localized damaging gust
   potential. Trends will continue to be monitored for any upscale
   organization and possible downstream watch potential.

   ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...OUN...DDC...AMA...

   LAT...LON   37790123 37860107 37930078 37670021 37149954 36229865
               35659867 35439938 35450007 36380072 37050100 37560124
               37790123 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN