Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1268

   Mesoscale Discussion 1268
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0541 AM CDT Tue Jun 23 2026

   Areas affected...west-central Nebraska

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 231041Z - 231345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A narrow corridor of hail and damaging wind potential may
   persist for a few hours this morning.

   DISCUSSION...An intense cluster of cells has developed near the
   surface trough over northern NE, under the influence of the upper
   wave moving across the Dakotas. Temperature aloft are relatively
   cool, with midlevel westerlies around 40 kt aiding deep-layer shear
   for storm longevity. Surface temperatures are cool and in the low
   60s F, but stronger south/southwest winds just off the surface are
   likely aiding destabilization and storm relative inflow within the
   850 mb theta-e gradient.

   Given the relatively large size of the complex and favorable
   elevated influx of moisture out of the south/southwest, it seems
   likely that hail and locally damaging wind potential will persist
   within a narrow zone immediately to the southeast. Trends will
   continue to be monitored for any additional expansion in threat
   area, and watch potential could be reconsidered at that time.

   ..Jewell/Gleason.. 06/23/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42100254 42290209 42430162 41900056 41189969 40629974
               40350093 40660145 40990188 41740236 42100254 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN