Mesoscale Discussion 1242 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0849 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026 Areas affected...portions of southwestern and south-central Kansas into the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles...and northwestern Oklahoma Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367... Valid 220149Z - 220315Z The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367 continues. SUMMARY...A severe wind swath should continue for several more hours, with an occasional instance of hail as well. Some of the severe winds may impact parts of the OK/TX Panhandles, where a small/tactical Severe Thunderstorm Watch may be needed. DISCUSSION...A mature cold-pool driven MCS, with a history of producing several measured gusts well over 50 kts, continues to propagate to the southeast amid a kinematically/thermodynamically favorable environment. Of particular concern is that the MCS will approach a surface baroclinic zone, where surface temperatures increase into the mid to upper 80s F amid low 70s F dewpoints, yielding much higher MLCAPE (i.e. 4000 J/kg) and decreased convective inhibition. The 00Z DDC observed sounding also showed an impressive buoyancy profile above the residual inversion layer with 9+ C/km mid-level lapse rates in a deep layer, yielding wide CAPE profiles amid an elongated hodograph, which is highly favorable for an MCS wind swath. Unlike the general consensus and consistency among numerical guidance, convection did not become prevalent along this boundary ahead of the MCS, so a pristine airmass awaits the ongoing wind swath over a large area. Given this scenario, it is plausible that many more measured severe gusts will be likely, and multiple gusts may reach the 75-90 mph range. The southwestern flank of this MCS may encroach on northeastern parts of the OK/TX panhandles, so a small/tactical Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance may be needed to address this threat. ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/22/2026 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...AMA...PUB... LAT...LON 37650259 37680176 37890095 38240043 38559997 38689948 38429876 37849835 37359828 36859836 36509854 36209889 36009930 35909985 35990041 36370135 37650259 MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...75-90 MPH MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN
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