Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1241

   Mesoscale Discussion 1241
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0802 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

   Areas affected...portions of northern Kentucky

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch needed soon 

   Valid 220102Z - 220200Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...95 percent

   SUMMARY...A new tornado watch likely will be needed across portions
   of northern Kentucky.

   DISCUSSION...A tornado threat is likely to develop later this
   evening as a broken line of supercells moves into the region. These
   supercells have a history of confirmed tornadoes. The overall
   environment across northern Kentucky is marginally to moderately
   unstable, with MUCAPE ranging from just under 1000 J/kg to around
   1500 J/kg. Continued low-level theta-e advection to the southeast of
   a MCV across central Indiana should sustain or slightly increase
   instability despite the loss of diurnal heating.

   Additionally, a favorable kinematic environment (Louisville VAD
   showing 0-3 kilometer SRH increasing the last hour to nearly 500
   m2/s2) will remain into the late evening hours. Thus, as the
   upstream supercells move into the region, the threat for tornadoes
   will persist. A new tornado watch will likely be needed within the
   hour.

   ..Marsh/Smith.. 06/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...JKL...ILN...LMK...

   LAT...LON   37758677 38368578 38788501 38808406 38688366 38418375
               38098424 37748522 37588596 37558670 37568685 37758677 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...100-125 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN