Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1241

   Mesoscale Discussion 1241
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0535 PM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

   Areas affected...Portions of northern and central Minnesota

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405...

   Valid 122235Z - 130000Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Supercells capable of producing very large hail (2-3
   inches in diameter) and locally damaging gusts are the main concerns
   across Severe Thunderstorm Watch 405 for the next hour or so.
   Tornado and damaging-wind potential may gradually increase with
   time.

   DISCUSSION...Latest radar data from KDLH, KMVX, and KABR depict
   intense, semi-discrete splitting supercells evolving across portions
   of northern/central MN as of 2230Z. Several 1-1.5-inch hail reports
   have accompanied this activity. These storms are generally focused
   along/immediately ahead of a northeast/southwest-oriented surface
   trough/wind shift, with around 50-60 kt of effective shear oriented
   perpendicular to this zone of low-level mesoscale ascent. Given a
   long/mostly straight hodograph (sampled by DLH VWP data), a
   continuation of splitting semi-discrete supercells capable of very
   large hail (2-3 inches in diameter) and locally damaging gusts are
   the main concerns in the near-term. 

   With time, these storms will continue east-southeastward into an
   area of larger low-level shear/hodograph curvature (see MPX 22Z
   sounding and VWP), which may favor an increasing tornado threat. In
   fact, one storm over far northeastern MN appears to be ingesting
   some of this streamwise vorticity and has recently developed an
   organized low-level mesocyclone. Convective trends will be monitored
   for the need for a targeted tornado watch southeast of the ongoing
   storms.

   ..Weinman.. 06/12/2024

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...ABR...

   LAT...LON   46199626 46799568 47109516 47839349 48059186 48029095
               47729051 47269061 46819190 46189328 45359452 45369530
               45599609 45909633 46199626