Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1239

   Mesoscale Discussion 1239
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0718 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2026

   Areas affected...portions of extreme southeast Colorado into western
   Kansas

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367...

   Valid 220018Z - 220145Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 367
   continues.

   SUMMARY...Severe wind and hail remain likely with an ongoing line of
   storms, particularly with embedded supercell structures. A tornado
   remains possible, and an organized MCS wind swath could develop.

   DISCUSSION...Supercell structures have gradually merged into an MCS
   over the past hour. Despite a linear appearance to the broader
   region of storms, the MCS is flanked to the east by a dominant
   supercell with a prevalent mesocyclone. A wet rear-flank downdraft
   associated with this supercell appears to be merging with another
   embedded cold pool surge to the southwest, which suggests that a
   smaller scale but organized swath of severe (50+ kt) gusts may be
   developing. Until then, the stronger storm cores with embedded
   supercells may support severe hail, and a tornado remains possible
   with any longer-lasting mesocyclone. The MCS is preceded by
   3000-4000 J/kg MLCAPE and 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear,
   suggesting that the severe threat may last for several more hours.
   If a prominent bow echo can develop, gusts over 75 mph will also be
   possible.

   ..Squitieri.. 06/22/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ICT...DDC...GLD...PUB...

   LAT...LON   38030357 38000245 38330165 38910055 39049937 38739855
               38149845 37569867 37259951 37190097 37160200 37330325
               38030357 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN