Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1220

   Mesoscale Discussion 1220
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0942 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026

   Areas affected...portions of west-central into southern Kansas...the
   extreme northeastern Texas Panhandle...and far northern Oklahoma

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 210242Z - 210345Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A downstream Severe Thunderstorm Watch issuance is being
   considered.

   DISCUSSION...A mature cold-pool-driven MCS continues to produce
   measured severe gusts across western KS. Both NEXRAD single-site and
   MRMS mosaic radar data have shown an uptick in the organization and
   intensity of the MCS, with a somewhat increased southeasterly
   propagation speed and a well defined rear inflow jet. Given residual
   1500-3000 J/kg MLCAPE and 40-50 kts of effective bulk shear ahead of
   this MCS, it is plausible that the accompanying wind swath may
   potentially cross into far northern OK. As such, a downstream Severe
   Thunderstorm Watch issuance will probably be needed given a
   persisting strong MCS structure with accompanying measured severe
   gusts.

   ..Squitieri/Smith.. 06/21/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...OUN...GID...DDC...GLD...AMA...

   LAT...LON   36369895 36240043 36480090 36920119 37660140 38360143
               38610131 39029976 39169888 38789730 38189654 38129657
               37809653 37309660 36909706 36739750 36589798 36509825
               36419890 36369895 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.50-2.50 IN