Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1203

   Mesoscale Discussion 1203
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 PM CDT Fri Jun 19 2026

   Areas affected...central Colorado into north-central and northeast
   New Mexico

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 191943Z - 192215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...Isolated severe storms capable of large hail and locally
   severe wind gusts appear possible this afternoon into early evening.
   The limited areal coverage and magnitude of the severe-weather
   threat are expected to preclude a watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Recent trends in radar and satellite data indicate
   deepening showers and thunderstorms along the Sangre De Cristo
   Mountains and CO Front Range from near Las Vegas, NM to near
   Colorado Springs, CO. In the short term, thunderstorms are expected
   to remain in the vicinity of the high terrain owing to stronger
   capping across the adjacent High Plains. However, by mid to late
   afternoon, that capping is expected to weaken, allowing for a slow
   southeastward drift of the storms into lower elevations. The
   presence of steep, low/mid-level lapse rates and resultant MLCAPE of
   around 1000 J/kg is expected to coincide with 35-40 kt of effective
   bulk shear, supporting the potential for transient supercell
   structures capable of isolated occurrences of large hail and perhaps
   locally severe wind gusts.

   The limited areal coverage and magnitude of the severe-weather
   threat are expected to preclude a watch issuance.

   ..Mead/Hart.. 06/19/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...PUB...BOU...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   35530583 36020580 37160540 38760514 38980409 38430323
               35900379 35060427 34910511 35120571 35530583 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...UP TO 1.25 IN