US Mesoscale Discussions

Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1203

   Mesoscale Discussion 1203
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0327 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

   Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas into southwestern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 082027Z - 082230Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent

   SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the
   afternoon. Severe wind and hail will be the main threats, though a
   tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed
   within the next few hours.

   DISCUSSION...A cumulus field continues to gradually deepen across
   far southeast KS into southwestern MO amid modest surface heating,
   despite the presence of mid to high-level clouds passing over the
   area. Insolation is aiding the surface layer to approach convective
   temperatures (upper 80s F), with MLCINH substantially eroding.
   Deep-layer ascent is weak across the eastern Plains, with no
   substantial synoptic features evident to mechanically lift buoyant
   surface-based parcels to their LFC. Therefore, stronger surface
   heating will be the most likely mechanism for supporting robust
   convective initiation later this afternoon. Should this occur, 7+
   C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading low 70s F surface dewpoints
   yields 3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE, contained within deep and wide
   profiles. Despite modest (i.e. 25-35 kts) of effective bulk shear,
   20-30 kts of veering 925-850 mb flow is contributing to modestly
   curved low-level hodographs. The deep, wide CAPE profiles coinciding
   the modest notable low-level shear will foster strong updrafts
   becoming multicellular/transient supercellular, accompanied by a
   severe hail and wind threat. If a more sustained supercell structure
   can form, a tornado could occur, though overall confidence in this
   scenario is low. 

   With details concerning timing of convective initiation and
   subsequent storm coverage remaining uncertain, convective trends
   will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance.

   ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2024

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   37539574 37969509 38109354 37779211 37209169 36689196
               36589315 36809431 37199531 37539574 

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