Mesoscale Discussion 1203
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0327 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024
Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas into southwestern
Missouri
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible
Valid 082027Z - 082230Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent
SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the
afternoon. Severe wind and hail will be the main threats, though a
tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed
within the next few hours.
DISCUSSION...A cumulus field continues to gradually deepen across
far southeast KS into southwestern MO amid modest surface heating,
despite the presence of mid to high-level clouds passing over the
area. Insolation is aiding the surface layer to approach convective
temperatures (upper 80s F), with MLCINH substantially eroding.
Deep-layer ascent is weak across the eastern Plains, with no
substantial synoptic features evident to mechanically lift buoyant
surface-based parcels to their LFC. Therefore, stronger surface
heating will be the most likely mechanism for supporting robust
convective initiation later this afternoon. Should this occur, 7+
C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading low 70s F surface dewpoints
yields 3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE, contained within deep and wide
profiles. Despite modest (i.e. 25-35 kts) of effective bulk shear,
20-30 kts of veering 925-850 mb flow is contributing to modestly
curved low-level hodographs. The deep, wide CAPE profiles coinciding
the modest notable low-level shear will foster strong updrafts
becoming multicellular/transient supercellular, accompanied by a
severe hail and wind threat. If a more sustained supercell structure
can form, a tornado could occur, though overall confidence in this
scenario is low.
With details concerning timing of convective initiation and
subsequent storm coverage remaining uncertain, convective trends
will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance.
..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2024
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT...
LAT...LON 37539574 37969509 38109354 37779211 37209169 36689196
36589315 36809431 37199531 37539574