Mesoscale Discussion 1203 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0327 PM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024 Areas affected...portions of southeastern Kansas into southwestern Missouri Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible Valid 082027Z - 082230Z Probability of Watch Issuance...40 percent SUMMARY...The severe threat should gradually increase through the afternoon. Severe wind and hail will be the main threats, though a tornado cannot be completely ruled out. A WW issuance may be needed within the next few hours. DISCUSSION...A cumulus field continues to gradually deepen across far southeast KS into southwestern MO amid modest surface heating, despite the presence of mid to high-level clouds passing over the area. Insolation is aiding the surface layer to approach convective temperatures (upper 80s F), with MLCINH substantially eroding. Deep-layer ascent is weak across the eastern Plains, with no substantial synoptic features evident to mechanically lift buoyant surface-based parcels to their LFC. Therefore, stronger surface heating will be the most likely mechanism for supporting robust convective initiation later this afternoon. Should this occur, 7+ C/km mid-level lapse rates overspreading low 70s F surface dewpoints yields 3500+ J/kg of MLCAPE, contained within deep and wide profiles. Despite modest (i.e. 25-35 kts) of effective bulk shear, 20-30 kts of veering 925-850 mb flow is contributing to modestly curved low-level hodographs. The deep, wide CAPE profiles coinciding the modest notable low-level shear will foster strong updrafts becoming multicellular/transient supercellular, accompanied by a severe hail and wind threat. If a more sustained supercell structure can form, a tornado could occur, though overall confidence in this scenario is low. With details concerning timing of convective initiation and subsequent storm coverage remaining uncertain, convective trends will continue to be monitored for the need of a WW issuance. ..Squitieri/Gleason.. 06/08/2024 ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product... ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TSA...ICT... LAT...LON 37539574 37969509 38109354 37779211 37209169 36689196 36589315 36809431 37199531 37539574