Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1180

   Mesoscale Discussion 1180
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0658 AM CDT Thu Jun 18 2026

   Areas affected...Northwest Pennsylvania...Western New York

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 181158Z - 181400Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...An isolated tornado and wind-damage threat may continue
   for much of the morning across parts of northwestern Pennsylvania
   and western New York. The threat area is expected to remain
   marginal, and weather watch issuance appears unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...A line of strong thunderstorms is currently ongoing
   along the eastern edge of Lake Erie, near a pocket of maximized
   low-level convergence. The storms are also located near a moist axis
   which extends northeastward from far northwestern Pennsylvania into
   far western New York. From near the moist axis eastward into central
   New York, a 50 to 60 knot low-level jet is analyzed by the RAP. In
   addition, the RAP shows the nose of an 80 to 100 knot mid-level jet
   that is moving into the central Appalachians. The two jets are
   greatly enhancing lift and shear across the Lower Great Lakes
   region. Forecast soundings this morning in far western New York have
   long and looped hodographs with 0-3 km storm-relative helicity above
   400 m2/s2. This will support an isolated tornado threat with
   low-topped supercells this morning. In addition, an isolated threat
   for severe wind gusts will also be possible.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 06/18/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...BGM...BUF...CTP...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   41878030 41638040 41468002 41607897 41947795 42337720
               42677694 42887701 43007717 43087739 43127766 43107817
               42917872 42787896 42537934 41878030 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...UP TO 90 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...UP TO 60 MPH