Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1149

   Mesoscale Discussion 1149
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 PM CDT Mon Jun 15 2026

   Areas affected...portions of the northern Great Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 151746Z - 151945Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The potential for strong to isolated severe wind gusts
   will increase through the afternoon as isolated to widely scattered
   high-based thunderstorms develop across portions of the northern
   Great Plains.

   DISCUSSION...Latest GOES water vapor imagery depicts a shortwave
   trough moving out of Saskatchewan into northwestern North Dakota.
   Downstream of this feature, warming surface temperatures ahead of a
   surface cold front and cold mid-level temperatures are contributing
   to weak destabilization (on the order of a couple hundred J/kg
   MLCAPE) as of 1730 UTC. Latest objective analysis also suggests that
   inhibition is quickly eroding, which is corroborated by recent
   lightning activity along the ND/SD border. As surface heating
   results in further destabilization through the afternoon (with
   500-700 J/kg MLCAPE likely by peak heating), high-based thunderstorm
   coverage is expected to increase. While the thermodynamic
   environment will remain marginal at best, LCLs around 2.5 km will
   support downward transport of increasing west-northwesterly
   low-to-mid level flow attendant to the shortwave trough (30+ kts
   sampled at 1 km AGL by the BIS VAD profile). This will promote an
   increasing risk for strong to isolated severe wind gusts through
   this afternoon. Watch issuance is unlikely at this time owing to the
   limited magnitude and isolated coverage of the severe threat.

   ..Chalmers/Mosier.. 06/15/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47670051 47750003 47729955 47609879 47439824 47189789
               46549748 45739734 44919762 44239853 44119901 44179951
               44279986 44410018 44580047 44950085 45320112 45880148
               46650168 47140168 47530126 47670051 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...55-70 MPH