Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Discussion 1095

   Mesoscale Discussion 1095
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0411 PM CDT Thu Jun 11 2026

   Areas affected...Western Illinois

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 313...

   Valid 112111Z - 112245Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 313 continues.

   SUMMARY...The tornado potential appears to be increasing across
   western Illinois.

   DISCUSSION...Radar imagery out of KILX depicts a strengthening
   supercell with an organizing mid-level mesocyclone near Carthage,
   IL. Live web streams depict a strengthening low-level mesocylone as
   well, suggesting the potential for tornadogenesis is increasing.
   This cell is drifting northeastward within a warm advection regime
   where low-level SRH has been increasing per the KILX VWP (0-1 km SRH
   has recently increased to 200 m2/s2). Per latest RAP mesoanalysis
   estimates, downstream STP values are also increasing to 6-7. The
   potential for destructive storm interactions appears limited for the
   short term (next hour or so), suggesting that the potential for a
   long-track supercell is increasing with an attendant threat or one
   or more tornadoes, including possible a strong/intense tornado.

   ..Moore.. 06/11/2026

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40329155 40649141 41399011 41388972 41108948 40868946
               40598945 40398966 40269014 40199091 40149118 40169142
               40329155 

   MOST PROBABLE PEAK TORNADO INTENSITY...140-170 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK WIND GUST...65-80 MPH
   MOST PROBABLE PEAK HAIL SIZE...1.00-1.75 IN